Tuesday, 26 May 2015

There is no time for real renegotiation with the EU - so what was the plan - to trust a promise?

The public cannot be asked to vote on a promise that would have to be honoured by all UK governments, all EU commissions and all governments of all EU member states (and the populations of those member states if they require their own referenda), even if those governments/commissions etc change between the promise being made and it being delivered!

To genuinely change the UK's relationship with the EU there must be treaty changes (scrapping most if not all of the Lisbon Treaty/Constitution).

Any 'change' that doesn't require treaty change can be reversed (or 'reinterpreted') by the EU commission at any time.

However there is no way that any serious treaty change could be made in the time that David Camerons's Conservatives have allowed.

A treaty change requires the unanimous consent of all EU members - and some of the members require their own referenda on treaty changes(!).

So, in truth, all that Cameron can offer will be a *promise* of change - and the UK public will go into a referendum voting on whether they really understand what has been promised (how often has a politician said one thing, done the opposite and claimed they didn't 'lie' the public just misunderstood?) and even if they do believe they understand, voting on whether they believe it will ever be delivered (by the UK government, the EU commission and all EU member governments).

For the referendum to be meaningful the treaty changes must be in place, the UK must have its 'new relationship' already in place, and then the public vote on 'in/out'.

The public cannot be asked to vote on a promise that would have to be honoured by all UK governments, all EU commissions and all governments of all EU member states (and the populations of those member states if they require their own referenda), even if those governments/commissions etc change between the promise being made and it being delivered.


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