Wednesday, 5 October 2016

The #UKIP rollercaster - that was wild! Lets go round again!!

Dianne James has decided not to take up the Leadership of UKIP - a role she ran for and was elected to.

There are some oddities about the candidate list for the Leadership, but ignoring those for now...

Dianne's reasons for backing down are primarily cited around not have authority in the party, not having enough support from the UKIP MEP's and feeling threatened in public (she was spat at on a train shortly after being elected).

The things Dianne cites are exactly what Nigel Farage put up with for many years. Those are all aspects of being the leader of a popular but not yet 'mainstream' party. She should have been well aware of all of these things before putting herself forwards for the role.

It has been suggested (by Arron Banks) that these are also exactly the things that persuaded Nigel to step down (after many years) having achieved his main ambition of getting the people a say over their membership of the UK.

On those candidate list oddities mentioned earlier, it was reported that Dianne's payment and forms to be a candidate were received about 15 minutes before the deadline, this is after Steven Woolf's payment was made, but before his application arrived (20 minutes after the deadline, so excluding him from the contest).

My supposition is that Steven got cold feet at the last moment and decided not to run, his backers needed a new candidate and had Dianne lined up (an application needs something like 50 assentors from 20 different branches, so cannot be done at the last minute) so she was put into the contest and Steven put his papers in late to exclude himself with out losing face. So Dianne had not really expected to run (or though she was not running as Steven was) so was not fully prepared and was called up at the last minute...

However this suggests that pretty much no one really wants to lead UKIP! In fact the only person determined and thick skinned and ambitious enough right now seems to be Douglass Carswell (or his proxy) a man who is blamed by many for being a major and final straw that led to Nigel Farage actually stepping down...

I think UKIP is destined to split - but will the existing infrastructure will be with Carswell for his new model party, or with Faragistas (as a libertarian or soft labour party?) and will those who break away simply scatter, join other parties or form a new one?

If Carswell does form his party (and doesn't instantly fold it back in the conservative party) it may well attract many Conservatives (including Daniel Hannan) which would weaken the conservative party - no bad thing as boundary changes alone suggest they will get an additional 80 seats in the next parliament, and the melt down of Labour under Corbyn should deliver them yet more.

This would make Theresa May, the Snow Queen with unfettered oppressive power in this country - making an independent UK as sad and tragic place as Eire was under deValera when they got their independence, instead of a place of joy an happiness.

With a weakened conservative party - split between the Conservatives and Carswells New Model UKIP Party - and a split Labour party it would be prime time for a new party to emerge - something that Arron Banks is rumoured to have considered, especially as he has deep pockets and an email list of several million pro independence bods as part of his Leave.Eu organisation.

Unfortunately, from my point of view, the soft left would be the 'best' place for a new party to be positioned to ensure it picked up as much labour support as possible as they desert Cobyns Labour party, and reject whatever it is that Blair's cronies may have on offer.

But maybe somewhere in this new political vista there is space for a really libertarian party... maybe New Model UKIP will become so? Or Arrons new party? Or maybe started from scratch - but not a mash up of overgrown school boys wanting to talk 24/7 about cannabis, incest and necrophilia...

Here's hoping...

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