Sunday, 21 June 2015

You can't trust reformers to run the #EUout campaign - they may switch sides!

The EUout, Brexit, Brindependence whatever campaign to promote the Exit arguments in the EU Referendum has to be run by people who wanted out last year, want it this year, will want it next year and want it forever.

For instance the EU (rightly for its interests), if it had to choose, would rather have 110 new jobs in Germany than only 100 in the UK. But - I (in the UK's interests) would rather have the 100 in the UK - Germany can look out for itself. This kind of choice happens all the time and (obviously on a far greater scale, millions of jobs, millions of choices) each time the EU's interests is not the same as the UK interest unless by sheer chance.

The EU is a bad idea for the UK, no amount of reform will change the fact that its interests and our interests will often be different, and by being a member we will have to agree to go against out own best interest. This is the national and political equivalent of self-harm.
So clearly, no amount of 'renegotiation' can 'fix' the EU. Anyone who is waiting to see what Cameron gets offered is not really committed to ending this self harm and leaving, they want to know what sweeties they may be offered to keep harming the UK.

If these 'reformers' are allowed influence in the EUout campaign, at any time before the actual referendum they could be offered the right sweeties and switch sides to support staying in.

We can see two things from the Scottish Independence referendum - firstly that it is stupid to make such fundamental decisions based on short term issues, as can and do change, secondly that if you do so a 'Vow' of extra sweeties just before polling can swing the result. For both these reasons anyone who is or has waited to see what Cameron gets offered has ruled themselves out as credible leaders, organisers or activists of the EUout campaign.

The only credible politicians so far that could be part of EUout are #UKIPpers (present, and many former), Kate Hoey and Daniel Hannan.

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