Tuesday, 17 July 2018

The clock is ticking, business needs a solid option to prepare for #Brexit

There is only one guarenteed option, UK needs to chose it and let business prepare.

We have about 8 months to #Brexit. Companies have little time to prepare for any change.

This means business demands either *no change* or we need to switch to something already available off the shelf (maybe with a few simple additions) with as much notice as possible.

To be able to continue as 'No Change' will be at the whim of the EU - we cannot force  them to continue -- and the price, if they are willing to continue, is likely to be massive.

So we really need to look at off the shelf solutions that can be implemented without active EU cooperation. The obvious solution is a no-deal, WTO #Brexit. Many UK companies who import/export will already be using suitable systems for trading under WTO rules - to add a new WTO country (rump EU) or maybe setting up each member state as a new country, to such systems should be very straight forward - for those who don't already have such systems they are freely available off the shelf.

These are the only options that can be implemented in time - and it is only the second that the UK can be sure to have available for business.

With new tariff levels with the EU, adjustments to UKs WTO tariff levels may be required, but these would (of course) be for all WTO, Most Favoured Nation partners.

Once out of the EU on WTO terms, with WTO based systems, any new trade deal can be incorporated under 'business as usual' for all trading companies.

The clock is ticking - the sooner this can be announced the better.

NB: My skills are processes and re-engineering systems, not international trade -- but I have read that the Treaty of Vienna (on treaties) and WTO could give us a ten year grace period with the EU continuing on zero tarriffs. This wouldn't change the process of no-deal, but would make transfer to standard tarrifs a more relaxed process.

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